Super El Niño is already reaching your seafood. This year Peru suspended the world’s largest fishery, extended the ban, and closed the season with only about a quarter of its quota caught. Most of that anchovy never reaches a plate whole. It becomes fishmeal and fish oil, and about three-quarters of that goes into feed for fish farms, which means the farmed salmon, shrimp and sea bass in grocery stores around the world. In this episode of Ocean Decoded, marine biologist Andrew Lewin follows the chain from warm water off Peru to your seafood counter.
NOAA’s October 8 update calls for a strong to very strong event, the kind often called a super El Niño, with parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific more than 4°C above normal and an 83% chance of a historic event this fall. Warm water shuts down the upwelling that feeds Peru’s coast, phytoplankton decline, and the anchoveta lose their food. Galápagos penguins, marine iguanas and sea lions feel it next. Fish farming now supplies far more of the world’s seafood than it did during the last very strong El Niño in 1997 to 1998, so a shortage in Peru travels further. Analysts warn that tighter fishmeal supplies, higher shipping costs and weak salmon prices could squeeze fish farmers harder than past disruptions. When Peru cancelled its main anchovy season in 2023, the country lost more than USD 1.4 billion in fishmeal and fish oil exports, while its squid catch hit a record.
Closer to home, Canada’s climate scientists say this El Niño is virtually certain to be a very strong event, with a record-breaking one a realistic possibility. Past events brought mackerel into BC waters, storms and low sea ice to the Atlantic coast, and drought and wildfire risk to the West. Andrew closes with what to watch this winter: fishery closures, wildlife turning up in strange places, and farmed seafood prices. Ocean ecosystems have recovered after past El Niños, and the worry is that extreme events could become twice as common as the planet warms.
Chapters:
00:00 - Peru shut down the world's biggest fishery
02:41 - Why fishermen named it El Niño
05:21 - Sea lions, tuna and hammerheads
07:58 - Atlantic coast: storms and sea ice
09:55 - Next: why some humpbacks skip migration
Takeaways
Peru suspended its main anchovy fishery in 2026 and closed the first season with about a quarter of the quota caught.
Peru supplies about 20% of the world’s fishmeal, and about three-quarters of fishmeal and fish oil goes into fish farm feed.
That links an anchovy shortage off Peru to farmed salmon, shrimp and sea bass worldwide.
Analysts warn fish farmers face tighter feed supplies and higher costs this year.
NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño, with an 83% chance of a historic event this fall.
Warm water cuts off upwelling, phytoplankton decline, and the food web above them goes hungry.
Past strong El Niños hit Galápagos penguins, flightless cormorants, marine iguanas and sea lions hard.
In 2023, Peru’s cancelled anchovy season cost more than USD 1.4 billion in exports while the squid catch hit a record.
Canada can expect Pacific coast species shifts, Atlantic storms and low sea ice, and drought and wildfire risk out west.
Watch fishery closures and farmed seafood prices this winter.
#OceanConservation #MarineBiology #SaveOurOceans #ProtectTheOcean #OceanAwareness #BluePlanet #ConservationMatters #ScienceForChange #SustainableOceans
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