Why the Pacific won't stop spawning hurricanes comes down to three sources of ocean heat stacked on top of each other this year. As of October 21, the eastern Pacific had produced 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes, nearly double the usual number of major storms, with total storm energy running more than double normal. Over the same stretch, the Atlantic produced 9 named storms and one hurricane, with energy 84% below normal. In this video, marine biologist Andrew Lewin walks through the data from the National Hurricane Center, the World Meteorological Organization and the scientists tracking this season, so every storm headline starts to make sense.
The first heat source is a historic El Niño. The WMO expects its key temperature index to reach about 3.7 °C above normal by December, warmer than any El Niño on record. The second is what El Niño does to the air: it cranks up wind shear over the Atlantic, which knocks storms over, and calms it over the eastern Pacific while pumping in moisture. The third is the ocean itself. A marine heatwave has sat off California and Mexico since mid-2025, and Climate Central found that without climate change it would cover about 36% less area, with about 18 heatwave days instead of 115. Andrew also covers the Atlantic's record-late first hurricane, Isaias, which still came ashore near Destin, Florida.
Then the California puzzle. No hurricane has made landfall in California in recorded history, and the last tropical storm to come ashore hit Long Beach in 1939. Cold water, steering winds and dry sinking air protect the coast, and this year all three defences are being tested. California feels it through the water, the waves and a warming coast. Rachel's remnants drove flash floods from San Diego to Las Vegas, long-period swell damaged the Long Beach Peninsula, and a Kelvin wave pushed San Francisco to a record October tide. Andrew closes with three questions to ask the next time you see a record hurricane headline.
Takeaways
Three heat sources are stacked this year: a record El Niño, El Niño's effect on wind shear, and a marine heatwave off California and Mexico.
As of Oct 21, the eastern Pacific had 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes, against an average of 15, 8 and 4.
The Atlantic had 9 named storms and 1 hurricane, with storm energy 84% below normal.
The Atlantic went longer without a hurricane than any season since 1914. Isaias finally formed on Oct. 8, tying the 1905 record for the latest first hurricane.
Hurricane, typhoon and cyclone are the same storm with different names depending on the ocean.
California's three natural defences are cold water from the California Current, steering winds that push storms west, and dry sinking air.
A storm can die over cold water and still flood the land. In 2023, Hilary gave Death Valley its rainiest day on record.
Swell from storms hundreds of miles away damaged the Long Beach Peninsula. Repairs are estimated at $1.5 million to $3.6 million.
A Kelvin wave raised the whole sea surface, so San Francisco hit an October record of about 1.7 feet above the predicted tide.
Record warm coastal water narrows California's cold buffer, so weakened storms can hold together farther north.
A study in Science found El Niños are now about 36% stronger than before the industrial era. Some scientists, including Michael Mann, question how cleanly corals capture that signal.
Next time you see a record hurricane headline, ask three questions. Is it an El Niño year? Where is the warm water sitting along the coast? How high is the sea already running?
If you live on the coast, take flood and high-surf warnings seriously, even when the storm is hundreds of miles away.
#OceanConservation #MarineBiology #SaveOurOceans #ProtectTheOcean #OceanAwareness #BluePlanet #ConservationMatters #ScienceForChange #SustainableOceans
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