Invasive species could gain a huge amount of new ground as sea level rise floods the coast. When you picture rising seas, you probably picture water in the street, a beach that's gone or a marsh going under. Every metre of coast the sea takes also becomes new ocean habitat, and something from the ocean is going to move in. Marine biologist Andrew Lewin, host of Ocean Decoded and co-host of the Beyond Jaws podcast, breaks down a new study that shows which species are lined up to take that space.
Published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution by a team led out of Beijing Normal University, the study modelled 122 non-native marine animals already established outside their home ranges, including crabs, oysters, shrimp and sea stars. Under a middle-of-the-road emissions scenario, with about 20 cm of global sea level rise by 2050 and 56 cm by 2100, more than two-thirds of newly flooded coastline could become suitable habitat for these invaders. That's between 290,000 and 470,000 square kilometres, an area between the size of Italy and the size of Sweden. Species named by the team include the Chinese mitten crab, Pacific oyster, Asian tiger shrimp, European green crab, Atlantic blue crab and Northern Pacific sea star. The risk is highest in the eastern United States, the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea coast, southeastern China and northern Australia, with mid-latitude estuaries as the biggest hotspots.
Andrew explains why estuaries matter so much, as fish nurseries, natural water filters and the places where ports and aquaculture concentrate, and why newly flooded ground gives invaders an early advantage. He also covers what the model can and can't tell us: a species still has to arrive, survive and spread, and lower emissions would shrink the area at risk. The researchers recommend early monitoring in places projected to flood, and you can help by learning the invasive species on your coast, reporting sightings to local monitoring programs and cleaning, draining and drying your gear between waters. Join Andrew live on Ocean Decoded Live, Monday to Thursday at 5 PM Eastern, and go deeper with How to Protect the Ocean and Beyond Jaws, co-hosted with Dr. David Ebert.
Chapters:
0:00 - When You Picture Sea Level Rise
2:07 - A Middle-of-the-Road Emissions Scenario
3:54 - Green Crabs in Atlantic Canada
6:02 - Learn the Invaders on Your Coast
7:25 - One Crab or Ten Thousand
Takeaways:
Every metre of coast the sea floods becomes new ocean habitat, and the first species to claim it are often invasive.
A new study in Nature Ecology & Evolution modelled 122 non-native marine animals already established outside their home ranges.
Under a moderate emissions scenario, global sea level is projected to rise about 20 cm by 2050 and 56 cm by 2100.
More than two-thirds of newly flooded coastline could become suitable habitat for these invaders.
That's 290,000 to 470,000 square kilometres, between the size of Italy and the size of Sweden.
Named examples include the Chinese mitten crab, Pacific oyster, Asian tiger shrimp, European green crab, Atlantic blue crab and Northern Pacific sea star.
Newly flooded ground has no established native community, and many invaders tolerate a wide range of temperatures and salinities.
European green crabs have been in Atlantic Canada since the 1950s and are now in PEI, Newfoundland and BC, where they damage eelgrass beds.
Hotspots include the eastern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, North Sea coast, southeastern China and northern Australia, especially mid-latitude estuaries.
Estuaries are fish nurseries, coastal filters and hubs for ports and aquaculture, which is how many invaders spread in the first place.
The study maps where conditions suit invaders. A species still has to arrive, survive and spread.
Lower emissions mean less flooding and less ground for invaders to claim.
Researchers recommend early monitoring of places projected to flood, so invaders are caught while still rare.
Learn your coast's invasive species, report sightings and clean, drain and dry your gear.
Next time you see a sea level rise map, ask: what moves in?
#OceanConservation #MarineBiology #SaveOurOceans #ProtectTheOcean #OceanAwareness #BluePlanet #ConservationMatters #ScienceForChange #SustainableOceans
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