84 Percent: Inside the Worst Coral Bleaching Event Ever Recorded

1
00:00:00,050 --> 00:00:03,510
This year, a lot of the coral on
the planet went through some sort

2
00:00:03,510 --> 00:00:07,406
of bleaching event because of a heat
stress, some of them severe enough

3
00:00:07,406 --> 00:00:09,416
where we had a good amount of bleaching.

4
00:00:09,416 --> 00:00:12,966
Not necessarily a mass bleaching event,
'cause apparently we're at the end of one.

5
00:00:13,379 --> 00:00:17,240
But about 84% of the world's reefs
area across the Pacific, Atlantic, and

6
00:00:17,240 --> 00:00:20,820
Indian Oceans had some sort of heat
stress severe enough to bleach it.

7
00:00:21,390 --> 00:00:24,210
And now I know a lot of the
times we see reports, you

8
00:00:24,210 --> 00:00:26,200
know, bleaching events happen.

9
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:27,379
We see global bleaching.

10
00:00:27,380 --> 00:00:28,846
We see corals are in trouble.

11
00:00:28,996 --> 00:00:30,326
We're worried about the corals.

12
00:00:30,326 --> 00:00:33,813
I often wonder, I'm like, "Where
are corals from a global standpoint?

13
00:00:33,823 --> 00:00:36,809
Are we losing them all?" Do we
know when they're gonna be lost?

14
00:00:36,809 --> 00:00:39,480
Is it something that we need to be
worried about, or is this just, like,

15
00:00:39,489 --> 00:00:41,009
headlines just trying to get clicks?

16
00:00:41,246 --> 00:00:44,426
Scientists have been studying, and
they continue to study coral reefs all

17
00:00:44,426 --> 00:00:45,586
the time, and they're looking at it.

18
00:00:45,586 --> 00:00:48,179
And when you speak to a coral reef
scientist, you ask them, you're like,

19
00:00:48,209 --> 00:00:49,689
"Is there really that much hope?"

20
00:00:49,689 --> 00:00:51,509
And they're kinda back and forth.

21
00:00:51,759 --> 00:00:55,849
I think we have to ensure
that these reefs can persist,

22
00:00:55,859 --> 00:00:57,299
whatever that's gonna look like.

23
00:00:57,309 --> 00:01:02,133
The reefs we know today or that we knew
back in the '50s and '60s and '70s are

24
00:01:02,133 --> 00:01:05,693
different today, and they're gonna be
different in another 40 or 50 years.

25
00:01:05,883 --> 00:01:10,560
It all depends on which corals can
actually survive the heat stress that

26
00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:14,750
we're undergoing, and if we can't change
that heat increase, then that stress

27
00:01:14,750 --> 00:01:17,950
is gonna continue to happen, and we
are going to see more and more changes,

28
00:01:18,130 --> 00:01:21,593
maybe to the point that we just see
less coral reefs, and that's obviously

29
00:01:21,593 --> 00:01:22,823
something that we don't wanna do.

30
00:01:22,863 --> 00:01:26,103
So what I thought I would do
today, because this week is all

31
00:01:26,103 --> 00:01:27,993
gonna be about coral restoration.

32
00:01:28,153 --> 00:01:31,493
On Friday, I have an interview with
Michael Goldberg, who runs ICare, which

33
00:01:31,493 --> 00:01:36,453
is I Care About Corals, which is an
organization in the Florida Keys that

34
00:01:36,453 --> 00:01:40,773
is based on coral restoration, and he
has a dive shop, and he has a whole

35
00:01:40,773 --> 00:01:42,143
thing we're gonna talk about on Friday.

36
00:01:42,143 --> 00:01:42,943
It's amazing.

37
00:01:43,153 --> 00:01:46,133
But I wanted to kinda cover
today's episode as, like, what's

38
00:01:46,133 --> 00:01:48,903
the global health of coral reefs.

39
00:01:48,993 --> 00:01:51,543
And then how do we know, like,
when we're in a coral bleaching, a

40
00:01:51,543 --> 00:01:53,393
global bleaching event for corals?

41
00:01:53,503 --> 00:01:54,873
How do we know when it's ended?

42
00:01:55,116 --> 00:01:56,966
Is there a point in restoring coral reefs?

43
00:01:57,103 --> 00:01:59,753
And what does that look like just
beyond planting coral fragments?

44
00:02:00,476 --> 00:02:01,786
Does any of it actually work?

45
00:02:02,119 --> 00:02:06,456
How is the practice itself changing,
and how has it changed over the years?

46
00:02:06,933 --> 00:02:11,206
So this is, like, episode one of four
this week, or really five this week,

47
00:02:11,286 --> 00:02:14,786
four solo episodes, all built around
that conversation I had with Mike

48
00:02:14,786 --> 00:02:19,246
Goldberg, a co-founder of ICare, a coral
restoration group in the Florida Keys.

49
00:02:19,469 --> 00:02:22,739
But this is the How to Protect the
Ocean podcast, where you get all your

50
00:02:22,749 --> 00:02:28,423
ocean news updates and conservation news
each and every week, Monday to Friday.

51
00:02:28,609 --> 00:02:32,539
If you like this type of information,
hit that follow button right now because

52
00:02:32,589 --> 00:02:36,299
not only it helps you and get more and
more information on the oceans, but

53
00:02:36,299 --> 00:02:40,259
it also helps other people discover
us because we gain on charts and if

54
00:02:40,269 --> 00:02:43,466
you wanna pass it to a friend like
you would a good book, please do so.

55
00:02:43,496 --> 00:02:46,196
If somebody's asking me, like, "Hey, what
are the coral reefs like?" Well, do so.

56
00:02:46,196 --> 00:02:47,616
There's a lot of scientists
in this audience.

57
00:02:47,756 --> 00:02:50,456
If people are asking you, you can pass
this episode, 'cause I'm hoping that

58
00:02:50,456 --> 00:02:55,206
this will be sort of like an update on
global health of corals in general, and

59
00:02:55,206 --> 00:02:57,276
then why we do restoration to help that.

60
00:02:57,649 --> 00:02:57,899
All right.

61
00:02:57,899 --> 00:03:02,523
So NOAA, the National Oceanographic
and Atmospheric Administration, and

62
00:03:02,523 --> 00:03:06,033
the International Coral Reef Initiative
confirmed a fourth global mass

63
00:03:06,083 --> 00:03:10,873
coral bleaching event, running from
January 2023 to roughly March 2025.

64
00:03:10,873 --> 00:03:12,203
So not that long ago.

65
00:03:12,609 --> 00:03:16,339
So that, looking at how much were
affected, 84% of the world's coral reefs

66
00:03:16,359 --> 00:03:18,756
hit with a bleaching-level heat stress.

67
00:03:18,983 --> 00:03:24,869
The damage reported in 82 of the 83
countries and territories across all three

68
00:03:24,929 --> 00:03:28,329
ocean basins, which was the Atlantic,
the Pacific, and the Indian Oceans.

69
00:03:28,659 --> 00:03:33,329
Now, compare that to some of, like, the
three prior global bleaching events and a

70
00:03:33,329 --> 00:03:35,406
pattern that we're seeing is escalating.

71
00:03:35,596 --> 00:03:36,426
It's not just a one-off.

72
00:03:36,426 --> 00:03:38,056
In 1998, we hit 21% of reefs.

73
00:03:38,056 --> 00:03:38,726
In 2010, we hit 37% of reefs.

74
00:03:38,726 --> 00:03:38,816
In

75
00:03:42,931 --> 00:03:47,403
2014 to 2017, it was, hit a 68% of reefs.

76
00:03:47,573 --> 00:03:51,503
In 2023 to 2025, it hit 84% of reefs.

77
00:03:51,953 --> 00:03:53,653
So you can see that escalation happening.

78
00:03:53,713 --> 00:03:58,343
It's scaling, not in a good way, meaning
that bleaching is occurring more and

79
00:03:58,343 --> 00:04:00,513
more, and these bleaching events are huge.

80
00:04:00,856 --> 00:04:02,983
These bleaching events are big,
and we're gonna talk, gonna

81
00:04:02,983 --> 00:04:03,963
talk about that in a second.

82
00:04:04,438 --> 00:04:08,658
Now, every global event on record has
been worse than the one before it, and

83
00:04:08,678 --> 00:04:11,728
each has coincided with strong El Niño.

84
00:04:11,905 --> 00:04:17,155
Now, we have just finished an El Niño
and a coral bleaching event in 2025.

85
00:04:17,565 --> 00:04:20,755
We are about to enter
another El Niño year.

86
00:04:20,755 --> 00:04:24,695
It was confirmed this summer, and this
might be what people like scientists

87
00:04:24,715 --> 00:04:29,335
consider a super El Niño, which is
gonna make it even worse and, heat

88
00:04:29,365 --> 00:04:31,405
and storms and everything a lot worse.

89
00:04:31,915 --> 00:04:36,165
Now, 2024 was the hottest year on record
and the first calendar year to cross the

90
00:04:36,175 --> 00:04:41,751
1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial
levels with triple the previous

91
00:04:41,751 --> 00:04:43,711
global record for marine heatwaves.

92
00:04:44,041 --> 00:04:45,111
So not looking good.

93
00:04:45,648 --> 00:04:50,048
Now, NOAA had to add three brand new
alert levels to its bleaching alert

94
00:04:50,048 --> 00:04:54,575
scale because the existing scale had
no category for what was happening.

95
00:04:54,995 --> 00:04:58,785
The new top level, level five,
flags risks over 80% of coral

96
00:04:58,795 --> 00:05:00,575
mortality of an affected reef.

97
00:05:00,575 --> 00:05:03,335
So essentially what happens when you
get those heat stresses, and they

98
00:05:03,335 --> 00:05:06,885
last for a long enough period, NOAA
will send out their Coral Reef Watch,

99
00:05:06,885 --> 00:05:11,038
will send out these alert systems and
says, "Hey, we are at level three.

100
00:05:11,038 --> 00:05:11,858
We're at level four.

101
00:05:11,858 --> 00:05:12,898
We're at level five.

102
00:05:13,108 --> 00:05:16,788
We're at 80% of coral mortality could be
affected." That's the risk that we're at.

103
00:05:17,131 --> 00:05:20,845
Now Derek Manzello, who's the NOAA's
Coral Reef Watch coordinator, has been

104
00:05:20,845 --> 00:05:25,195
quoted as saying, "We are now in the era
where reefs will bleach on a near annual

105
00:05:25,195 --> 00:05:28,425
basis." It used to just be like sometimes
they bleach, sometimes they don't.

106
00:05:28,625 --> 00:05:30,795
Now it just seems like
it's part of the new norm.

107
00:05:31,191 --> 00:05:34,141
That's not normal for marine
science and the ocean.

108
00:05:34,565 --> 00:05:37,628
Now, a peer-reviewed study in 2021,
like the study that came out from the

109
00:05:37,628 --> 00:05:40,998
University of British Columbia, which
is by Eddie et al., published in One

110
00:05:40,998 --> 00:05:47,805
Earth, found the world lost roughly half
of its coral cover between 1957 and 2007.

111
00:05:47,905 --> 00:05:52,375
Just as it kinda overlapped the 1998
and before the 2010 mass bleaching

112
00:05:52,385 --> 00:05:56,651
event, we lost roughly, like,
half, like 50% of the coral cover

113
00:05:56,661 --> 00:05:59,541
worldwide between 1957 and 2007.

114
00:05:59,901 --> 00:06:04,038
And with some nations losing up to 6.8%
of their reefs over the past decade.

115
00:06:04,538 --> 00:06:09,678
Reef biodiversity fell 63%, and
reef fish abundance fell 60%

116
00:06:09,678 --> 00:06:11,448
over that 50 some odd years.

117
00:06:11,918 --> 00:06:12,518
That's incredible.

118
00:06:13,025 --> 00:06:13,565
That's awful.

119
00:06:14,265 --> 00:06:18,255
Now, what's actually riding on
that decline is roughly one billion

120
00:06:18,255 --> 00:06:22,045
people worldwide depend directly
or indirectly on coral reefs.

121
00:06:22,388 --> 00:06:25,858
About 25% of all marine species
live in and around reefs.

122
00:06:25,868 --> 00:06:28,148
Reefs are like a biodiversity haven.

123
00:06:28,511 --> 00:06:31,731
It's the same biodiversity density
people associate with rainforests.

124
00:06:31,941 --> 00:06:34,911
So, you know, it's funny, like I covered
deep sea mining a couple weeks ago.

125
00:06:35,155 --> 00:06:39,045
And when we covered that,, Gerard
Barron, who's like the head of TMC,

126
00:06:39,045 --> 00:06:41,408
which is one of the mining companies,
said that, " Right now we're mining

127
00:06:41,408 --> 00:06:44,948
in a rainforest, so we know we don't
wanna destroy things in a rainforest,"

128
00:06:44,978 --> 00:06:46,448
plus all the human rights violations.

129
00:06:46,648 --> 00:06:48,088
But there's also the biodiversity.

130
00:06:48,305 --> 00:06:50,925
Let's just go down to the deep
where there's not much biodiversity.

131
00:06:50,945 --> 00:06:53,475
It just so happens that there was
more biodiversity than we expect in

132
00:06:53,475 --> 00:06:56,355
the deep sea, but there's a lot in
the rainforest that people recognize.

133
00:06:56,655 --> 00:07:00,545
So having that decrease
about 25%, that's a big hit.

134
00:07:01,095 --> 00:07:05,315
And, you know, healthy reefs absorb
about 97% of incoming wave energy from

135
00:07:05,315 --> 00:07:09,138
tsunamis or any kind of storms, meaning
there are coastlines, first line of

136
00:07:09,138 --> 00:07:11,098
defense against storms and erosion.

137
00:07:11,568 --> 00:07:15,598
So in the US alone, reefs generate
an estimated $3.4 billion a year in

138
00:07:15,598 --> 00:07:20,568
economic value, including $1.8 billion
a year in averted flood damage.

139
00:07:21,031 --> 00:07:24,901
That's a lot of money saved
and a lot bringing in just from

140
00:07:24,901 --> 00:07:26,651
the economic value of reefs.

141
00:07:26,701 --> 00:07:30,801
Like it's not only for protection, but it
brings in business: divers, snorkelers,

142
00:07:30,921 --> 00:07:34,511
kayakers, fishers, like recreational
fishing, all that kind of stuff.

143
00:07:34,985 --> 00:07:38,261
Now, the interview we did on Friday,
we talked about, like with Mike, we

144
00:07:38,261 --> 00:07:40,021
talked about shifting baselines.

145
00:07:40,071 --> 00:07:41,711
How that's a problem that he described.

146
00:07:41,761 --> 00:07:46,548
He was a diver who back in like
in the '90s, '80s and '90s, he

147
00:07:46,548 --> 00:07:49,108
was like, "Oh, wow, it's like
everything is covered wall to wall.

148
00:07:49,108 --> 00:07:53,379
There's no patches on the reef where you
just see bare rock." Now, you know, he

149
00:07:53,379 --> 00:07:55,099
looks today and he's like, "It's sparse.

150
00:07:55,099 --> 00:07:59,179
This is like a patchy reef." Now, if
somebody went, started diving today and

151
00:07:59,179 --> 00:08:03,766
went to a reef in the Keys, and you went
there and you saw, like, just patchy reef,

152
00:08:03,766 --> 00:08:06,023
you'd just be like, "Oh, this is what
the reef looks like." You didn't know,

153
00:08:06,023 --> 00:08:09,546
you weren't aware what was happening back
then because it's not really well shared.

154
00:08:09,936 --> 00:08:13,059
But if you talk to a diver who's
been diving for, like, 40 years, 30

155
00:08:13,069 --> 00:08:15,923
years, they'll tell you that there's
been a huge decline, especially in

156
00:08:15,923 --> 00:08:19,963
the last 10 years within the Keys,
and we talk about that on Friday.

157
00:08:20,403 --> 00:08:23,093
Because, like, going back to the shifting
baseline, people just haven't seen the

158
00:08:23,093 --> 00:08:24,713
wall-to-wall coral that we used to see.

159
00:08:25,109 --> 00:08:28,439
So the baseline for quote-unquote
"normal" keeps resetting downward.

160
00:08:28,449 --> 00:08:30,149
It keeps getting, like, worse and worse.

161
00:08:30,603 --> 00:08:33,429
So now, like, I wanna talk just
going back to the bleaching event.

162
00:08:33,729 --> 00:08:35,819
You know, when we talk about
global bleaching events.

163
00:08:35,839 --> 00:08:38,426
I wanna talk about how that's
declared, because when somebody says

164
00:08:38,426 --> 00:08:41,796
there's a global bleaching event, I'm
thinking like 90% of the corals are

165
00:08:41,796 --> 00:08:43,206
feeling it, but that's not the case.

166
00:08:43,256 --> 00:08:44,116
You know, I looked it up.

167
00:08:44,116 --> 00:08:46,606
I did a little bit of research
to find out what it actually is.

168
00:08:46,616 --> 00:08:47,656
So there are categories.

169
00:08:47,759 --> 00:08:48,849
It's not just a casual label.

170
00:08:48,849 --> 00:08:52,359
Like, there's a specific category that's
saying obviously they have levels to this.

171
00:08:52,589 --> 00:08:56,123
But NOAA's Coral Reef Watch uses
specific operational threshold

172
00:08:56,123 --> 00:08:58,973
built after 2014 and 2017 event.

173
00:08:59,219 --> 00:09:04,229
So the global bleaching event is declared
only when all three tropical ocean basins,

174
00:09:04,229 --> 00:09:08,499
so Pacific, Atlantic, and the Indian
Oceans, independently cross the same bar.

175
00:09:08,873 --> 00:09:12,853
At least 10% of the basin's
reef-containing locations

176
00:09:12,853 --> 00:09:16,283
experience heat stress of four
or more degree heating weeks.

177
00:09:16,293 --> 00:09:19,629
So that means, you know, there's
an increase in the heating stress

178
00:09:19,719 --> 00:09:23,039
and there are four or more degree
heating weeks, so where , it's at

179
00:09:23,039 --> 00:09:24,453
there, then they start to look.

180
00:09:24,453 --> 00:09:27,623
And a satellite track measure
linked to significant bleaching

181
00:09:27,633 --> 00:09:29,113
or some coral mortality.

182
00:09:29,113 --> 00:09:32,343
So they get reports in from the different
places, the different locations.

183
00:09:32,513 --> 00:09:34,333
They're gonna look at satellite
data, they're gonna look at

184
00:09:34,343 --> 00:09:35,293
a lot of different things.

185
00:09:35,633 --> 00:09:39,063
Now, NOAA tracks this within an
eight-month detection window because,

186
00:09:39,073 --> 00:09:42,003
you know, obviously all the basins,
summer's different in Australia

187
00:09:42,003 --> 00:09:44,583
than it is in the US or in the West.

188
00:09:44,743 --> 00:09:46,013
So it's a lot different that way.

189
00:09:46,473 --> 00:09:50,213
Now, if only two of those three
basins cross that line, cross the 10%

190
00:09:50,213 --> 00:09:55,149
threshold, NOAA issues a global bleaching
warning instead of a full-on event.

191
00:09:55,513 --> 00:09:59,203
So it's a step below a full
grade global event declaration.

192
00:09:59,745 --> 00:10:03,691
So NOAA doesn't call an event over
the moment the heat stress drops.

193
00:10:03,691 --> 00:10:05,741
So it doesn't say there's
an end to this event.

194
00:10:05,991 --> 00:10:08,391
Like we know how it
starts, now how it ends.

195
00:10:08,848 --> 00:10:12,158
You know, widespread bleaching has
to stop occurring simultaneously

196
00:10:12,158 --> 00:10:13,698
across all three basins.

197
00:10:13,898 --> 00:10:17,198
And then NOAA monitors sea surface
temperatures and bleaching reports

198
00:10:17,198 --> 00:10:20,558
for several more months, roughly about
six more months, before confirming

199
00:10:20,558 --> 00:10:21,818
that the event is even finished.

200
00:10:22,068 --> 00:10:26,248
Since the Southern Hemisphere bleaching
often runs on the opposite seasonal

201
00:10:26,258 --> 00:10:28,028
clock from the Northern Hemisphere.

202
00:10:28,328 --> 00:10:29,828
So we know that that's a little different.

203
00:10:30,308 --> 00:10:33,598
So like Christmas time for
Australia is summertime.

204
00:10:33,728 --> 00:10:35,568
So it's always the
beginning of summer there.

205
00:10:36,061 --> 00:10:39,121
So now let's talk about the question
I had was like, did the fourth

206
00:10:39,121 --> 00:10:43,395
event that we had in 2025 that was
supposed to end in 2025, did it end?

207
00:10:43,405 --> 00:10:43,995
And it did.

208
00:10:44,045 --> 00:10:47,535
So NOAA first called it likely,
quote unquote, "likely ending in

209
00:10:47,535 --> 00:10:52,308
2025," with bleaching in Western
Australia in early 2025, marking

210
00:10:52,308 --> 00:10:54,608
roughly its last widespread signal.

211
00:10:54,618 --> 00:10:59,675
So like, as I said before, Australia
summer starts in December, so in early

212
00:10:59,675 --> 00:11:03,325
2025 we still had bleaching events
because that was their summertime,

213
00:11:04,258 --> 00:11:05,848
which is the hottest time of year.

214
00:11:05,998 --> 00:11:08,848
And then so they waited a little
bit, before they declared it ending.

215
00:11:08,868 --> 00:11:11,988
So final confirmation waited until
NOAA had verified no widespread,

216
00:11:12,108 --> 00:11:15,531
bleaching occurred anywhere during
the following, austral summer, so

217
00:11:15,531 --> 00:11:17,961
December 2025 through February 2026.

218
00:11:18,051 --> 00:11:22,165
With that confirmation
landing in first half of 2026.

219
00:11:22,185 --> 00:11:27,411
The event's active window is
dated early 2023 to mid-2025.

220
00:11:27,451 --> 00:11:31,091
That's essentially when the last, the
fourth bleaching event occurred since

221
00:11:31,091 --> 00:11:32,831
we started recording bleaching events.

222
00:11:33,428 --> 00:11:36,848
Now, ended doesn't necessarily mean
it's over in a reassuring sense.

223
00:11:36,848 --> 00:11:39,678
Like NOAA has already flagged
elevated bleaching risk for the

224
00:11:39,678 --> 00:11:43,658
North Pacific, Florida, and the
Caribbean tied to an anticipated new

225
00:11:43,668 --> 00:11:47,188
El Niño that's coming, even as this
event is being formally closed out.

226
00:11:47,228 --> 00:11:49,928
So even though we're at the
end of this event, we're still

227
00:11:49,928 --> 00:11:51,518
seeing bleaching events happen.

228
00:11:51,798 --> 00:11:54,358
Just it's not on a wide
scale, as wide a scale.

229
00:11:54,668 --> 00:11:57,368
But then there's an El Niño coming
in, potentially a super El Niño,

230
00:11:57,368 --> 00:11:59,508
which we don't even know what
that's gonna mean yet for what

231
00:11:59,508 --> 00:12:01,091
these like corals are going through.

232
00:12:01,211 --> 00:12:04,291
But we know that during El Niño
events, we tend to have the worst

233
00:12:04,291 --> 00:12:06,111
actual global bleaching events.

234
00:12:06,548 --> 00:12:09,748
So now Manzello, the program director
for the NOAA's Coral Reef Watch,

235
00:12:09,858 --> 00:12:13,285
his own framing is that reefs have
entered a new era of near annual

236
00:12:13,285 --> 00:12:14,805
bleaching, which I mentioned earlier.

237
00:12:15,365 --> 00:12:17,345
So we have the declaration.

238
00:12:17,345 --> 00:12:18,615
We know the different levels.

239
00:12:18,615 --> 00:12:22,935
They've increased to having a level
five 80% of the coral's bleach,

240
00:12:22,935 --> 00:12:24,845
which was the last event that we saw.

241
00:12:25,081 --> 00:12:26,381
We know that that's increasing.

242
00:12:26,381 --> 00:12:29,978
We know we're about to go into an
El Niño, and we know we're about

243
00:12:29,988 --> 00:12:31,908
to maybe go into a super El Niño.

244
00:12:31,918 --> 00:12:34,778
And reefs are still undergoing
bleaching since the last bleaching

245
00:12:34,778 --> 00:12:36,478
event ended, quote, unquote, "ended."

246
00:12:36,971 --> 00:12:39,241
So how do we manage reefs?

247
00:12:39,581 --> 00:12:41,231
There's a case for restoration.

248
00:12:41,521 --> 00:12:44,191
Local restoration, there's a case.

249
00:12:44,491 --> 00:12:48,468
But we're in still dire need
because, the climate change isn't

250
00:12:48,478 --> 00:12:49,838
getting any better at this point.

251
00:12:50,085 --> 00:12:55,625
We are seeing events that are happening
like wildfires, droughts, storms,

252
00:12:55,625 --> 00:12:58,801
and things that are making things
worse, releasing more carbon through

253
00:12:58,811 --> 00:13:00,738
wildfires and all that kind of stuff.

254
00:13:01,085 --> 00:13:06,085
And the IPCC's own 1.5 degree Celsius
special report projects coral reefs

255
00:13:06,085 --> 00:13:11,755
will decline 70 to 90% even if the
world holds to this 1.5 degree Celsius.

256
00:13:12,095 --> 00:13:15,705
And more than 99% would be lost
at two degrees Celsius, which

257
00:13:15,705 --> 00:13:16,925
we're not that far off of.

258
00:13:17,277 --> 00:13:21,447
The question is, like, if we plant coral,
is it just decoration that's about to die?

259
00:13:21,497 --> 00:13:23,197
Like, are we doing it
for the right reasons?

260
00:13:23,397 --> 00:13:25,257
Is it just something that's loss of hope?

261
00:13:25,433 --> 00:13:26,423
Some people don't believe that.

262
00:13:26,423 --> 00:13:27,383
Some people will believe.

263
00:13:27,383 --> 00:13:29,413
I remember when I first heard
of coral restoration, I'm like,

264
00:13:29,413 --> 00:13:32,753
it's really difficult 'cause
restoration in general for any ocean

265
00:13:32,753 --> 00:13:34,753
or water body is very expensive.

266
00:13:35,063 --> 00:13:36,793
Even if you want a poor habitat.

267
00:13:36,813 --> 00:13:40,393
Like, I remember working in the
Great Lakes pouring rocks into

268
00:13:40,393 --> 00:13:43,023
the Great Lakes, into like Lake
St. Clair or anything like that.

269
00:13:43,043 --> 00:13:46,887
Even just planning that, the costs
were like half a million dollars just

270
00:13:46,887 --> 00:13:48,417
to put rocks in, like fish habitat.

271
00:13:48,837 --> 00:13:54,027
And so it's expensive to restore any kind
of habitat, to do fragmenting, and to pay

272
00:13:54,027 --> 00:13:55,517
the people to go out and to do all that.

273
00:13:55,697 --> 00:13:58,417
It costs money to set up the
infrastructure and everything like that.

274
00:13:58,447 --> 00:13:59,247
It costs money.

275
00:13:59,667 --> 00:14:04,247
So how do we justify the money if
we think that they're going to die?

276
00:14:04,690 --> 00:14:06,210
That's the question here.

277
00:14:06,220 --> 00:14:07,760
Is it really worth it?

278
00:14:08,310 --> 00:14:12,780
So we're gonna talk a little bit about
what's been going on, and what we can do.

279
00:14:13,203 --> 00:14:16,833
'Cause every fragment of surviving
a restored reef is still doing,

280
00:14:16,853 --> 00:14:18,923
like, real work while it's alive.

281
00:14:19,253 --> 00:14:24,173
It's buffering a coastline, feeding
fish, supporting a local tourism economy.

282
00:14:24,393 --> 00:14:27,063
And restoration isn't necessarily
a substitute for cutting emissions.

283
00:14:27,063 --> 00:14:28,633
We still have to, do the work.

284
00:14:28,967 --> 00:14:33,087
It's what keeps reefs functioning long
enough like emissions fight to catch up.

285
00:14:33,447 --> 00:14:36,197
I wanna kind of put it in context,
if I can make this analogy on

286
00:14:36,197 --> 00:14:37,767
the run here, like in my head.

287
00:14:38,258 --> 00:14:39,428
I'm watching my weight.

288
00:14:39,468 --> 00:14:43,058
I'm always trying to watch my weight, and
I've been working out for a long time.

289
00:14:43,381 --> 00:14:45,691
And working out does a
certain amount for you.

290
00:14:45,911 --> 00:14:50,051
It increases cardiovascular health,
builds muscle, and it's good for

291
00:14:50,051 --> 00:14:53,181
you as long as you do it properly
and do it where you risk injury.

292
00:14:53,181 --> 00:14:54,891
Obviously, there's always a
risk, but you know what I mean.

293
00:14:55,278 --> 00:14:59,785
Now, I started CrossFit when I, you know,
back in 2013, I was doing it, and I even

294
00:14:59,785 --> 00:15:01,905
see people now, they're like, "Oh man,
yeah, I remember when you were really

295
00:15:01,905 --> 00:15:04,855
into CrossFit," because I'm not as much
into it now just because of injuries and

296
00:15:05,235 --> 00:15:07,145
lifestyle situations and things like that.

297
00:15:07,358 --> 00:15:08,808
It's been a hard few years after COVID.

298
00:15:08,828 --> 00:15:10,128
But I was in good shape.

299
00:15:10,168 --> 00:15:11,198
Like, I had good shape.

300
00:15:11,591 --> 00:15:13,661
But I never really, like,
lost a lot of weight.

301
00:15:13,661 --> 00:15:16,245
I'd go up and down, but,
like, I would work out.

302
00:15:16,265 --> 00:15:18,755
The workout kind of restored my body.

303
00:15:19,101 --> 00:15:23,561
But the actual work to have
long-lasting effects on my

304
00:15:23,561 --> 00:15:25,261
health had to come from eating.

305
00:15:25,631 --> 00:15:30,428
If I wanted to lose more weight, even
if I worked out, if I wanted to lose

306
00:15:30,428 --> 00:15:34,745
more weight, I had to eat less, or
I had to change the way I was eating.

307
00:15:34,865 --> 00:15:36,665
I was an impulse eater
for quite some time.

308
00:15:36,861 --> 00:15:37,881
Still am sometimes.

309
00:15:38,118 --> 00:15:40,641
You have to do the work to go through
that, and that's the tough work.

310
00:15:40,651 --> 00:15:42,301
That's always the difficult work because

311
00:15:42,301 --> 00:15:45,431
if you really get into, like, what
eating and impulse eating, a lot

312
00:15:45,431 --> 00:15:46,891
of times it's like a mental thing.

313
00:15:47,198 --> 00:15:50,218
It's like a habit-building thing and
sometimes there's underlying things

314
00:15:50,218 --> 00:15:51,438
going on, especially in my case.

315
00:15:51,828 --> 00:15:57,158
So if I use the analogy that trying
to get climate change reduced is like

316
00:15:57,208 --> 00:16:01,008
trying to reduce weight on a regular
basis by changing your habits, your

317
00:16:01,028 --> 00:16:02,728
eating habits, and your nutrition habits.

318
00:16:03,188 --> 00:16:06,468
But the workout part is like
the restoration of a reef, where

319
00:16:06,468 --> 00:16:09,158
it's like you work out, you're
gonna be okay for a little bit.

320
00:16:09,158 --> 00:16:10,798
You can be a little bit more resilient.

321
00:16:11,111 --> 00:16:16,058
But the real work here is getting that
nutrition in, psychologically not

322
00:16:16,068 --> 00:16:19,385
going after the foods that are really
bad for you, so if you wanna have a

323
00:16:19,385 --> 00:16:22,905
long, sustaining life or do whatever
you can to have that long, sustaining

324
00:16:22,905 --> 00:16:24,275
life, from a health perspective.

325
00:16:24,808 --> 00:16:25,968
That's where it's at.

326
00:16:26,168 --> 00:16:29,578
The nutrition part is the
climate change reduction.

327
00:16:29,815 --> 00:16:32,695
The restoration part is
like the working out.

328
00:16:32,695 --> 00:16:34,535
It kinda gives you a
little bit more resilient.

329
00:16:34,901 --> 00:16:39,171
So that's what we're talking about
when we look at this type of work.

330
00:16:39,705 --> 00:16:44,932
Now, the way to approach a global problem,
the only real way, of this size, is to

331
00:16:44,932 --> 00:16:47,942
narrow down to, like, one coral cluster.

332
00:16:47,952 --> 00:16:49,722
It's like to niche down in business.

333
00:16:50,132 --> 00:16:53,122
One small reef, one community at a time.

334
00:16:53,522 --> 00:16:57,175
Trying to solve the whole ocean,
the problem, it's not gonna work.

335
00:16:57,565 --> 00:17:00,585
'Cause, like, all at once is how,
like, people give up from when,

336
00:17:00,605 --> 00:17:03,665
like, even before they even start,
because it's such a huge problem.

337
00:17:04,039 --> 00:17:08,529
So restoration may also be building
resilience, not just buying time.

338
00:17:08,779 --> 00:17:12,549
Because, like, even from our guests on
Friday, Mike's own field observations,

339
00:17:12,549 --> 00:17:15,639
like, this year's water temperatures
would have caused a mass bleaching event

340
00:17:15,639 --> 00:17:20,269
in 1995, and this isn't happening the
same way today according to his anecdotal

341
00:17:20,269 --> 00:17:23,859
o- observations from the work that
he's doing in front of him in the Keys.

342
00:17:23,879 --> 00:17:27,409
Because the coral being propagated
now descends from stock that

343
00:17:27,409 --> 00:17:30,859
have already survived earlier
bleaching events and disease events.

344
00:17:30,979 --> 00:17:35,989
which is nice because we don't
know how these reefs are changing

345
00:17:35,989 --> 00:17:37,209
in terms of their tolerance.

346
00:17:37,239 --> 00:17:38,459
The strongest will survive.

347
00:17:38,459 --> 00:17:39,879
Natural selection will happen.

348
00:17:40,052 --> 00:17:40,992
It's evolution.

349
00:17:41,482 --> 00:17:45,472
So the species that don't handle
the change in temperature swings

350
00:17:45,669 --> 00:17:47,309
well, they are going to die off.

351
00:17:47,339 --> 00:17:48,579
The other ones are going to stay.

352
00:17:48,579 --> 00:17:53,195
So we might already have seen a switch
in the species makeup of these reefs.

353
00:17:53,195 --> 00:17:56,365
But the future reefs, the ones that are
being fragged, have already survived

354
00:17:56,645 --> 00:18:00,645
this level, this baseline level
that has increased over that time.

355
00:18:01,012 --> 00:18:04,472
You know, it's almost like, if you
listen to earbuds, you have earbuds in,

356
00:18:04,472 --> 00:18:05,892
you listen to music really, really loud.

357
00:18:06,122 --> 00:18:08,399
when you stop playing that music
and you take them off, your hearing

358
00:18:08,399 --> 00:18:11,875
threshold has gone down because you
can't hear as much, but you become a

359
00:18:11,875 --> 00:18:14,745
little bit more resilient to it inch
by inch, even though it's bad for you.

360
00:18:15,045 --> 00:18:17,255
So I just wanted to let you
know, like, we're seeing some

361
00:18:17,255 --> 00:18:18,415
resilience for some of these corals.

362
00:18:18,845 --> 00:18:21,635
And, like, I covered this on Ocean
Decoded Live on my YouTube channel.

363
00:18:21,825 --> 00:18:25,085
There's some swings in the Great Barrier
Reef, like from really hot marine heat

364
00:18:25,085 --> 00:18:29,165
waves to lower, like, days or summers
or part of the summers that's better,

365
00:18:29,165 --> 00:18:32,945
and it's actually helping coral cover
when the swings go towards cooler.

366
00:18:33,289 --> 00:18:33,829
They're resilient.

367
00:18:33,839 --> 00:18:34,709
They come back.

368
00:18:35,152 --> 00:18:38,182
So I think that's an interesting
way to view the problem, is

369
00:18:38,182 --> 00:18:41,889
let's look at it locale by
locale and see how we can do this.

370
00:18:42,199 --> 00:18:45,569
So when we're looking at restoration,
we're looking at reducing emissions.

371
00:18:45,569 --> 00:18:46,469
That's a long-term goal.

372
00:18:46,469 --> 00:18:48,049
The restoration's the short-term goal.

373
00:18:48,272 --> 00:18:52,365
Build the resilience that they need
to handle the world in which we live

374
00:18:52,365 --> 00:18:56,599
in now, so that when we do reduce the
climate change problem, then we're

375
00:18:56,599 --> 00:18:58,299
gonna be able to help those corals.

376
00:18:58,319 --> 00:18:59,779
They'll bounce back even quicker.

377
00:19:00,092 --> 00:19:01,212
So I think that's good.

378
00:19:01,707 --> 00:19:05,277
Now, I wanna talk a little bit
about restoration and looking at

379
00:19:05,277 --> 00:19:07,097
coral conservation and restoration.

380
00:19:07,657 --> 00:19:12,367
So fragment-based coral gardening,
which, basically you take a coral, which

381
00:19:12,367 --> 00:19:16,851
is a colony of corals, and you start
chipping off these little fragments.

382
00:19:16,891 --> 00:19:20,741
And then what you do is you go into
this, like, incubator in your lab

383
00:19:20,741 --> 00:19:23,521
or something, and you start to
regrow them, and you start to make

384
00:19:23,521 --> 00:19:24,781
sure that they're growing well.

385
00:19:24,981 --> 00:19:28,391
And then you replant them into the
ocean where you took them from,

386
00:19:28,491 --> 00:19:29,911
and then they grow from there.

387
00:19:29,971 --> 00:19:31,331
So that's the beauty about corals.

388
00:19:31,371 --> 00:19:32,621
They can just kinda grow.

389
00:19:32,851 --> 00:19:34,001
It builds their resilience.

390
00:19:34,001 --> 00:19:36,427
But at least when they're
younger or they're smaller, they

391
00:19:36,427 --> 00:19:38,747
have a chance to get a little
bigger before you replant them.

392
00:19:38,767 --> 00:19:41,677
So that's sort of, like, what ICARE
does, which we're gonna talk about

393
00:19:41,677 --> 00:19:44,407
on Friday, and we're gonna talk
about probably later on this week.

394
00:19:44,681 --> 00:19:48,961
It's the most viable restoration
method, but it's one tool in the

395
00:19:48,961 --> 00:19:50,821
toolbox amongst several tools.

396
00:19:50,977 --> 00:19:54,211
So I wanna talk, before we go
totally into restoration, talk

397
00:19:54,221 --> 00:19:57,241
about, like, the different types
of restoration that we have.

398
00:19:57,241 --> 00:19:58,511
It's not just fragging.

399
00:19:58,521 --> 00:19:59,131
There's other things.

400
00:19:59,131 --> 00:20:02,111
So larval propagation, which
is coral IVF, essentially.

401
00:20:02,397 --> 00:20:05,317
So this is, you know, what we're gonna
cover soon, is like, it basically

402
00:20:05,317 --> 00:20:09,337
collects coral eggs and sperm during
natural mass spawning, culture

403
00:20:09,337 --> 00:20:14,197
the larvae, and release or settle
them directly onto degraded reefs.

404
00:20:14,527 --> 00:20:16,907
It doesn't require handling
of adult coral at all, which

405
00:20:16,907 --> 00:20:18,541
is kinda good, which is nice.

406
00:20:18,801 --> 00:20:21,791
Now, there's selective breeding,
assisted evolution for heat tolerance.

407
00:20:21,811 --> 00:20:25,897
So researchers at the Coral Assist
Lab and the Palau International Coral

408
00:20:25,897 --> 00:20:30,051
Reef Center ran a seven-year selective
breeding program, cross-breeding

409
00:20:30,071 --> 00:20:34,591
heat-tolerant parent corals and testing
offspring after three to four years.

410
00:20:34,754 --> 00:20:38,541
So the results published in "Nature
Communications" 2024, the heat tolerance

411
00:20:38,581 --> 00:20:44,451
could be enhanced by roughly one degree
Celsius a week within a single generation,

412
00:20:44,751 --> 00:20:50,047
with the genetic basis for the trait
hetirability around about 0.2 and 0.3.

413
00:20:50,047 --> 00:20:52,061
So it, I guess, passes on
to the next generations.

414
00:20:52,434 --> 00:20:54,944
One thing to, note, though, the
projected heat wave intensity

415
00:20:54,944 --> 00:20:58,494
is rising by about three degree
Celsius a week, so per decade.

416
00:20:58,524 --> 00:21:02,684
So that's obviously increasing a lot
faster than what this breeding is doing.

417
00:21:02,847 --> 00:21:05,257
The study explicitly states,
like, selective breeding cannot

418
00:21:05,257 --> 00:21:06,977
replace urgent climate action.

419
00:21:07,204 --> 00:21:10,234
In many of these restoration
efforts, climate action, urgent

420
00:21:10,234 --> 00:21:11,861
climate action is where we're at.

421
00:21:12,111 --> 00:21:15,021
Now, there's also cryopreservation
and coral biobanking.

422
00:21:15,221 --> 00:21:18,641
So the Smithsonian's Reef Recovery
Initiative and the International

423
00:21:18,641 --> 00:21:22,921
Coral Biobank Analysis, which has over
200 coral species now held in human

424
00:21:22,921 --> 00:21:26,994
care, freeze coral sperm and larval
in liquid nitrogen and are developing

425
00:21:27,004 --> 00:21:29,034
methods to freeze whole coral fragments.

426
00:21:29,532 --> 00:21:31,329
This is genetic insurance essentially.

427
00:21:31,492 --> 00:21:34,512
So letting scientists combine
genetic material from parent corals

428
00:21:34,512 --> 00:21:36,162
that would never naturally meet.

429
00:21:36,355 --> 00:21:39,485
So in practice, the idea is
the Smithsonian has already

430
00:21:39,485 --> 00:21:42,805
produced 600 genetically diverse
elkhorn corals, which is like a

431
00:21:42,925 --> 00:21:44,335
acropora, like a branching coral.

432
00:21:44,775 --> 00:21:49,592
Individuals using cryopreserved
sperm, a meaningful boost given

433
00:21:49,592 --> 00:21:52,962
only around 150 wild e- elkhorn
colonies remain in Florida.

434
00:21:53,042 --> 00:21:54,852
So there's definitely reasons for this.

435
00:21:55,142 --> 00:21:59,552
Another method of restoration is coral
probiotics or microbiome manipulation.

436
00:21:59,699 --> 00:22:04,442
So it's a body of research, notably
around 2018, 2019 study, in the ISME

437
00:22:04,442 --> 00:22:09,772
Journal, is testing whether introducing
beneficial micro, organisms for coral,

438
00:22:09,772 --> 00:22:14,572
so BMCs, into a coral's microbiome can
increase its resistance to bleaching.

439
00:22:14,972 --> 00:22:17,972
The same underlying idea as
probiotics in human or animal

440
00:22:17,972 --> 00:22:19,222
health applied to coral tissue.

441
00:22:19,222 --> 00:22:22,015
So essentially, you know how you
say have your probiotics pills

442
00:22:22,015 --> 00:22:24,305
in the morning, or you eat yogurt
'cause it has probiotics in it?

443
00:22:24,375 --> 00:22:27,795
That's the idea is it helps you
be more resilient towards change.

444
00:22:28,139 --> 00:22:31,759
Engineered substrates, two
different approaches here for that.

445
00:22:31,759 --> 00:22:33,629
So biorock or mineral accretion.

446
00:22:33,879 --> 00:22:37,849
So running a low voltage electrical
current through submerged metal

447
00:22:37,859 --> 00:22:41,189
frames caused dissolved minerals
to accrete onto the structure,

448
00:22:41,189 --> 00:22:42,759
giving coral a surface to bond.

449
00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:43,969
So that helps as well.

450
00:22:44,185 --> 00:22:49,935
And then, of course, deployed for decades
in Bali is the, Pemuteran's Karang

451
00:22:49,935 --> 00:22:52,135
Lasanteri Project of 50 plus structures.

452
00:22:52,425 --> 00:22:54,365
And of course it's elsewhere
too, not only in Bali.

453
00:22:54,525 --> 00:22:58,145
The technology's own promoters
cite dramatic survival and growth

454
00:22:58,145 --> 00:23:01,965
multipliers, flagged above as
needing independent verification.

455
00:23:01,965 --> 00:23:05,245
So a 2025 peer-reviewed study in
the Journal of Marine Science and

456
00:23:05,245 --> 00:23:10,299
Engineering tested custom ceramic tiles
in Hong Kong's Hoi Ha Wan Marine Park.

457
00:23:10,469 --> 00:23:13,079
It was seeded with 378 coral fragments.

458
00:23:13,249 --> 00:23:16,695
The results after four years,
88% coral survival, and compared

459
00:23:16,695 --> 00:23:21,079
it to an unrestored site, seven
times more fish and almost 60% more

460
00:23:21,289 --> 00:23:23,249
invertebrates by visual survey.

461
00:23:23,539 --> 00:23:26,939
So environmental DNA sampling found
an increase in biodiversity by

462
00:23:26,939 --> 00:23:33,639
23.5% than the unrestored area, and
even 13.3% higher than the natural

463
00:23:33,639 --> 00:23:35,069
reference reef, which is great.

464
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:36,979
And then, of course, there's
marine protected areas and

465
00:23:36,979 --> 00:23:38,149
local stressor reduction.

466
00:23:38,199 --> 00:23:42,349
So protecting herbivorous fish like,
parrotfish, which graze down the algae

467
00:23:42,349 --> 00:23:46,189
that would otherwise smother corals,
and cutting local stressors like

468
00:23:46,189 --> 00:23:49,829
overfishing, sedimentation, and nutrient
pollution from coastal development.

469
00:23:50,009 --> 00:23:53,229
It's pretty intuitive, the way we talk
about marine protected areas on here

470
00:23:53,229 --> 00:23:55,922
and then other things that we talked
about in terms of development and sort

471
00:23:55,922 --> 00:23:59,252
of sedimentation due to development
and nutrient pollution like reductions.

472
00:23:59,465 --> 00:24:01,415
It needs to be said, like
there's not enough coastal

473
00:24:01,415 --> 00:24:03,075
marine protected areas in there.

474
00:24:03,115 --> 00:24:06,335
Sometimes it gets caught up in the 30
by 30 because a lot of these coastal

475
00:24:06,335 --> 00:24:09,715
MPAs will be smaller, and they may
not contribute enough percentage

476
00:24:09,825 --> 00:24:11,225
to actually fit the 30 by 30.

477
00:24:11,225 --> 00:24:14,842
But they're just as important, if not more
important, ' cause these habitats like

478
00:24:14,842 --> 00:24:19,399
coral reef, seagrass areas, mangroves, are
crucial to the next generation of fish.

479
00:24:19,459 --> 00:24:24,599
That's where a lot of these larval and
juvenile animals are spending time before

480
00:24:24,599 --> 00:24:26,719
they go off to be adults in other areas.

481
00:24:26,729 --> 00:24:27,899
So that's a huge thing.

482
00:24:28,035 --> 00:24:31,506
Now, obviously, like there was a
widely studied 2019 peer review, in

483
00:24:31,506 --> 00:24:34,746
the annual review of marine science
directly challenges the assumption that

484
00:24:34,746 --> 00:24:38,423
MPAs and herbivore protection reliably
build climate resilience, arguing

485
00:24:38,423 --> 00:24:41,883
that oceans warming affects corals,
routinely overwhelms local protections.

486
00:24:41,883 --> 00:24:45,886
Obviously, the boundary is not a
physical boundary, and water heats

487
00:24:45,886 --> 00:24:47,606
up, and the MPAs can't really help it.

488
00:24:47,606 --> 00:24:50,516
But they can take the pressure
off of, like, the external.

489
00:24:50,636 --> 00:24:53,166
Even pollution sometimes help,
but you're taking away any kind of

490
00:24:53,206 --> 00:24:56,296
extractive activities, whether it's
like diving, whether if people are

491
00:24:56,296 --> 00:24:58,936
diving 'cause they can hurt it, or
extractive activities like fishing,

492
00:24:59,003 --> 00:25:00,353
mining, all that kind of stuff.

493
00:25:00,353 --> 00:25:03,996
So this is a interesting debate
within the MPA system and just

494
00:25:03,996 --> 00:25:05,096
scientists and conservations.

495
00:25:05,276 --> 00:25:08,156
But MPAs do provide
protection for coral reefs.

496
00:25:08,156 --> 00:25:09,816
It's just a different type of protection.

497
00:25:09,816 --> 00:25:12,426
It's more fisheries and
biodiversity-based, which biodiversity

498
00:25:12,426 --> 00:25:14,156
provides stability, so that's always good.

499
00:25:14,376 --> 00:25:17,556
Now, of course, you know, one thing
to note that none of the above

500
00:25:17,556 --> 00:25:20,796
changes the fact that global emissions
reduction is the one lever that

501
00:25:20,826 --> 00:25:24,096
determines whether any of this holds
long term, any of this restoration.

502
00:25:24,293 --> 00:25:25,663
It is the Band-Aid.

503
00:25:26,086 --> 00:25:27,886
All of these methods
above are the Band-Aid.

504
00:25:27,886 --> 00:25:30,626
Restoration is the Band-Aid
until the problem is solved.

505
00:25:30,929 --> 00:25:34,249
Every method here is about
buying time and building local

506
00:25:34,249 --> 00:25:36,559
resilience, not a substitute for it.

507
00:25:36,919 --> 00:25:41,126
So I wanna make that clear, 'cause
it may not work all the time because

508
00:25:41,126 --> 00:25:42,436
you never know what's gonna hit.

509
00:25:42,683 --> 00:25:43,783
We're heading into El Niño.

510
00:25:43,783 --> 00:25:45,663
You don't know how that's
gonna change everything.

511
00:25:46,033 --> 00:25:49,543
So now let's talk about, like,
does restoration actually work?

512
00:25:49,823 --> 00:25:51,153
Can it work in the long term?

513
00:25:51,476 --> 00:25:53,726
And is it worth it even if
it doesn't work all the time.

514
00:25:54,106 --> 00:25:55,486
But let's talk about some of the evidence.

515
00:25:55,486 --> 00:25:57,346
So let's look at sort of the big picture.

516
00:25:57,346 --> 00:26:02,396
So 2025 meta-analysis in Nature
Communications covering 764

517
00:26:02,396 --> 00:26:06,596
marine restoration interventions
across habitat types found an

518
00:26:06,636 --> 00:26:09,696
average success rate around 64%.

519
00:26:10,113 --> 00:26:12,893
And that's using a 50% survival threshold.

520
00:26:13,113 --> 00:26:19,113
So coral reefs were among the better
performing habitats at 67% to 74% success.

521
00:26:19,503 --> 00:26:23,989
So similar to salt marshes and ahead
of seagrasses, that were at 56%.

522
00:26:24,379 --> 00:26:28,369
So about 9% of the interventions
were complete failures, but

523
00:26:28,379 --> 00:26:29,739
a lot of them had success.

524
00:26:30,163 --> 00:26:34,263
So there was, like one of the local
case studies for reef restoration looked

525
00:26:34,263 --> 00:26:36,363
at reef function that recovers fast.

526
00:26:36,476 --> 00:26:41,756
So the Mars Coral Reef Restoration Program
in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, restored

527
00:26:41,756 --> 00:26:46,786
reef damage decades ago by blast fishing
using coral transplants plus steel

528
00:26:46,786 --> 00:26:48,606
structures to stabilize loose rubble.

529
00:26:49,056 --> 00:26:52,246
So now this was published in Current
Biology, one of the journals of 2024.

530
00:26:52,536 --> 00:26:56,346
The coral reef's net carbonate budget,
essentially measure like whether a reef is

531
00:26:56,346 --> 00:27:00,466
growing or eroding, tripled within four
years and matched healthy control reefs.

532
00:27:00,916 --> 00:27:04,206
Now, that's a direct measurable
signal that a restored reef can

533
00:27:04,216 --> 00:27:07,739
rebuild its coastal protection
function on a real timeline.

534
00:27:08,069 --> 00:27:12,549
So now, something to know though is the
restored reefs skew toward fast-growing

535
00:27:12,549 --> 00:27:16,653
branching corals, which kinda like tells
you like, depending on the coral, how

536
00:27:16,673 --> 00:27:19,863
things will rebuild and how composition
will look and diversity will look.

537
00:27:20,289 --> 00:27:23,789
Now another case study, it was a
15-year track record, a community-based

538
00:27:23,849 --> 00:27:29,599
elkhorn coral Acropora palmata,
restoration in Vega Baja, Puerto Rico.

539
00:27:29,823 --> 00:27:35,076
So it ran from 2008 to 2023, published
in Sustainability in 2024, the journal.

540
00:27:35,313 --> 00:27:39,593
Outplanted coral colonies grew
from an average diameter of 17.9

541
00:27:39,603 --> 00:27:42,313
centimeters to 243.3 centimeters.

542
00:27:42,323 --> 00:27:47,613
So the restored plots had 2.4 times
more fish species and 2.6 more total

543
00:27:47,613 --> 00:27:49,633
fish than restored control plots.

544
00:27:49,936 --> 00:27:53,296
And with herbivorous fish increasing
up to sixfold, which is great ' cause

545
00:27:53,306 --> 00:27:56,276
it's exactly the grazing community
that is needed to help out.

546
00:27:56,723 --> 00:27:59,193
So there are a lot of case studies
that go into this, and I can

547
00:27:59,193 --> 00:28:02,603
read all the stuff, but it shows
that we are seeing success rates.

548
00:28:02,906 --> 00:28:06,636
But like local success doesn't necessarily
claim that it's a global success.

549
00:28:06,656 --> 00:28:08,866
Remember we talked about
let's keep it local.

550
00:28:09,066 --> 00:28:12,186
Like a 2005 peer-reviewed paper in
Nature Ecology and Evolution reviewed

551
00:28:12,186 --> 00:28:16,866
220 restoration projects worldwide,
found restoration reliability works at

552
00:28:16,866 --> 00:28:21,546
a local scale, roughly 200 square meters
to two hectares over the months to years.

553
00:28:21,916 --> 00:28:24,466
But it's not currently a viable
fix for global scale, like

554
00:28:24,466 --> 00:28:25,996
it's good for local areas.

555
00:28:26,183 --> 00:28:30,286
So the numbers behind that, about
11,700 square kilometers of reef were

556
00:28:30,286 --> 00:28:33,896
degraded globally between 2009 and 2018.

557
00:28:34,226 --> 00:28:37,686
So total global restoration investment
over the past decade was about $258

558
00:28:39,716 --> 00:28:42,286
million, while restoring even
10% of degraded reef would

559
00:28:42,286 --> 00:28:44,336
cost a minimum of $1 billion.

560
00:28:44,336 --> 00:28:49,296
And under current climate trajectories,
an estimated 99.6% of restored reefs

561
00:28:49,296 --> 00:28:53,906
are still projected to face mass
bleaching by 2100 without emissions cuts.

562
00:28:54,106 --> 00:28:56,756
So if we don't do anything from
now on, that's what's gonna happen.

563
00:28:57,163 --> 00:29:01,653
This is essentially why we want
to do local areas to help local

564
00:29:01,693 --> 00:29:03,493
people, local communities.

565
00:29:04,027 --> 00:29:07,581
Now, there's a way to measure these
different types of restorations.

566
00:29:08,724 --> 00:29:12,274
NOAA and the Coral Restoration Consortium
jointly publish a coral reef restoration

567
00:29:12,284 --> 00:29:15,407
monitoring guide, so different projects
and regions can be compared on the

568
00:29:15,407 --> 00:29:16,877
same terms, which is always great.

569
00:29:16,897 --> 00:29:17,967
This is what science does.

570
00:29:18,017 --> 00:29:21,647
And it splits metrics into universal
metrics every project should track.

571
00:29:21,781 --> 00:29:25,481
So coral survival and condition,
growth and size, genetic diversity

572
00:29:25,481 --> 00:29:28,407
of restored population, water
temperature, and so forth.

573
00:29:28,407 --> 00:29:31,527
And it's a goal-based metrics
tied to what a specific project

574
00:29:31,527 --> 00:29:32,827
is actually trying to achieve.

575
00:29:32,827 --> 00:29:37,181
So could be ecological recovery,
community and economic benefit, disaster

576
00:29:37,181 --> 00:29:40,031
response, climate adaptation, or research.

577
00:29:40,367 --> 00:29:43,077
So it's evaluated at multiple
scales, from individual colony

578
00:29:43,077 --> 00:29:44,507
up to population and landscape.

579
00:29:44,507 --> 00:29:46,527
There's a lot that goes
into this document.

580
00:29:46,667 --> 00:29:50,417
And across an actual published
studies above, like the metrics that

581
00:29:50,417 --> 00:29:53,667
keep showing up are like the percent
survival at fixed time intervals.

582
00:29:53,821 --> 00:29:57,521
So the single most common metric in
the field, like live coral cover,

583
00:29:57,761 --> 00:30:02,057
reef carbonate budget or net growth,
fish abundance and species richness,

584
00:30:02,077 --> 00:30:06,481
structural complexity, genetic diversity
of outplanted stock, and an increasingly

585
00:30:06,481 --> 00:30:09,857
environmental DNA sampling, which
is to catch biodiversity shifts and

586
00:30:09,857 --> 00:30:11,907
a visual survey can't alone track.

587
00:30:11,907 --> 00:30:12,927
So it's kinda cool.

588
00:30:13,797 --> 00:30:17,147
Now, we're gonna talk about the
monitoring that Mike Goldberg's

589
00:30:17,147 --> 00:30:20,787
organization, who we're gonna talk
to on Friday, ICARE goes through.

590
00:30:20,787 --> 00:30:22,157
We're gonna talk about that on Thursday.

591
00:30:22,407 --> 00:30:25,047
Looking at being transparent
with the data and the survival

592
00:30:25,047 --> 00:30:26,207
and how well that's going.

593
00:30:26,641 --> 00:30:29,131
Now, the evolution has
changed for restoring reefs.

594
00:30:29,131 --> 00:30:31,901
In the early 1980s, the discovery
that made everything really

595
00:30:31,901 --> 00:30:33,291
possible is Peter Harrison.

596
00:30:33,504 --> 00:30:36,444
Like then a young researcher
discovered mass synchronized coral

597
00:30:36,444 --> 00:30:37,734
spawning on the Great Barrier Reef.

598
00:30:38,007 --> 00:30:40,617
Corals releasing eggs and
sperm in the water column on

599
00:30:40,617 --> 00:30:42,197
the same night once a year.

600
00:30:42,597 --> 00:30:46,487
That discovery was the foundation for
larval-based restoration decades later.

601
00:30:46,894 --> 00:30:50,364
And the first wave, like 1970s and
1980s, like restoration starts as

602
00:30:50,364 --> 00:30:54,624
scientific curiosity and salvage work,
made possible as scuba diving became

603
00:30:54,624 --> 00:30:57,644
more widely accessible and early
environmental protections appeared.

604
00:30:58,007 --> 00:31:01,364
The hand transplanting live coral
fragments and building artificial

605
00:31:01,364 --> 00:31:02,964
structures, it's just to grow on.

606
00:31:02,964 --> 00:31:03,994
Like, that's what's really coming.

607
00:31:03,994 --> 00:31:07,964
I remember when I was getting
into the marine aquarium phase

608
00:31:07,974 --> 00:31:09,364
of my life, I looked at corals.

609
00:31:09,364 --> 00:31:12,764
There was a site dedicated to help
people create fragments and how to

610
00:31:12,764 --> 00:31:15,524
frag properly, and it was like a
whole open database kind of thing.

611
00:31:15,524 --> 00:31:16,654
It was really, really great.

612
00:31:17,017 --> 00:31:21,217
And then from 2000 to 2010, restoration
matures into an actual discipline.

613
00:31:21,217 --> 00:31:24,474
So coral nurseries appear,
growing fragments in a controlled

614
00:31:24,474 --> 00:31:26,134
setting before outplanting them.

615
00:31:26,254 --> 00:31:27,104
That's important.

616
00:31:27,414 --> 00:31:29,824
Practitioners start addressing
causes, not just symptoms.

617
00:31:29,834 --> 00:31:33,534
So they remove algae, invasive
lionfish, and crown-of-thorns starfish

618
00:31:33,534 --> 00:31:37,084
in Australia, and then managing
overcrowding at popular tourism dive

619
00:31:37,084 --> 00:31:39,194
sites, especially across the Caribbean.

620
00:31:39,616 --> 00:31:42,283
Now, the actual breakthrough
though is like in 2012, Dr.

621
00:31:42,283 --> 00:31:45,633
David Vaughan at Mote Marine Laboratory
in Florida Keys accidentally breaks

622
00:31:45,633 --> 00:31:49,263
a coral fragment against the side
of a tank during a routine handling.

623
00:31:49,323 --> 00:31:52,066
Everyone's like, "Uh-oh."
Instead of dying, it heals and

624
00:31:52,066 --> 00:31:53,646
grows at an explosive rate.

625
00:31:53,979 --> 00:31:57,426
He turned that accident into a
deliberate experiment, and by

626
00:31:57,436 --> 00:31:58,596
2015 confirms microfragmentation.

627
00:32:00,283 --> 00:32:04,073
Cutting slow-growing stony coral
into small pieces to trigger 25 to

628
00:32:04,073 --> 00:32:07,973
40 times faster growth than the same
coral would achieve in the wild.

629
00:32:08,389 --> 00:32:12,089
Now, one of the field's biggest
breakthroughs, and it started with just a

630
00:32:12,089 --> 00:32:13,979
mistake because somebody, broke a coral.

631
00:32:14,459 --> 00:32:17,423
In 2013, larval restoration goes
live, building on Harrison's

632
00:32:17,839 --> 00:32:19,419
1980 spawning discovery.

633
00:32:19,633 --> 00:32:23,726
The first successful coral IVF reef
trial happens in the Philippines.

634
00:32:23,796 --> 00:32:26,696
Collecting coral eggs and sperm
during a natural mass spawning event.

635
00:32:26,696 --> 00:32:27,356
culturing larvae.

636
00:32:27,356 --> 00:32:31,146
We're gonna have somebody on later on
this year, talking about that because

637
00:32:31,146 --> 00:32:32,356
that's a technique that's huge.

638
00:32:32,356 --> 00:32:35,396
It now produces tens of millions
of larvae per spawning event, and

639
00:32:35,406 --> 00:32:38,326
has scaled across the Great Barrier
Reef with expansion underway in the

640
00:32:38,326 --> 00:32:40,316
Maldives, Caribbean, and Southeast Asia.

641
00:32:40,326 --> 00:32:42,356
I think we're gonna be talking
about the Maldives project.

642
00:32:42,749 --> 00:32:44,859
Now in 2016, it was like,
kind of like a third wave.

643
00:32:45,083 --> 00:32:47,503
The restoration becomes a
full-scale diversified practice.

644
00:32:47,503 --> 00:32:51,143
So microfragmentation and larval
propagation running alongside

645
00:32:51,143 --> 00:32:55,386
assisted evolution, biobanking,
probiotics, and engineered substrates,

646
00:32:55,429 --> 00:32:56,489
combined with something new.

647
00:32:56,519 --> 00:33:00,213
Built-in partnerships between government,
business, tourism operators, and

648
00:33:00,213 --> 00:33:02,923
volunteer divers, rather than
just science running on its own.

649
00:33:02,933 --> 00:33:05,413
Rather than just, it's just scientists
trying to figure out what the next thing

650
00:33:05,413 --> 00:33:06,603
is, but they couldn't implement it.

651
00:33:06,663 --> 00:33:07,853
We need the implementation.

652
00:33:08,276 --> 00:33:11,026
And I care that we're gonna speak
to Mike, the co-founder, is

653
00:33:11,026 --> 00:33:12,596
really the modern-day example.

654
00:33:12,929 --> 00:33:15,319
We'll talk more about that,
but now he's gonna have pop-up

655
00:33:15,319 --> 00:33:17,223
nurseries, going in in October.

656
00:33:17,443 --> 00:33:20,883
They're gonna be able to, basically
restore a lot more areas, than

657
00:33:20,883 --> 00:33:22,213
they were able to do before.

658
00:33:22,665 --> 00:33:25,345
I know this is a longer episode, but even
though coral reefs just came through,

659
00:33:25,345 --> 00:33:28,695
like, one of the most severe global
bleaching events ever recorded, where

660
00:33:28,695 --> 00:33:30,865
84% of the reefs area were affected.

661
00:33:30,865 --> 00:33:35,455
It added a fifth level onto the global
event watch kind of levels of risk,

662
00:33:35,875 --> 00:33:36,365
you know, between 2023 and 2025.

663
00:33:36,365 --> 00:33:40,675
And NOAA only confirms an event
over after months of monitoring

664
00:33:40,675 --> 00:33:44,375
shows it's generally done, not
just cooling off, off temporarily.

665
00:33:44,752 --> 00:33:46,252
We know we're going into something worse.

666
00:33:46,282 --> 00:33:48,132
El Niño, super El Niño.

667
00:33:48,375 --> 00:33:52,225
We might see the fifth event that
happens two years after the fourth event.

668
00:33:52,715 --> 00:33:55,395
But we know restoration is
here to help us is to provide

669
00:33:55,395 --> 00:33:56,975
that resilience that we need.

670
00:33:57,192 --> 00:33:59,462
It's that quick resilience in tough times.

671
00:33:59,642 --> 00:34:03,812
and there's so many different ways of
doing it, and everybody's, like, science

672
00:34:03,942 --> 00:34:08,475
and practitioners are actually working
to implement these ways and monitor them

673
00:34:08,595 --> 00:34:12,735
and be transparent about them in order
to share what they've been able to find

674
00:34:12,735 --> 00:34:15,255
and where we can bring our practice over.

675
00:34:15,315 --> 00:34:18,465
And in the next three days, the next
three episodes, we're gonna be talking

676
00:34:18,465 --> 00:34:21,555
about some of the things that Mike
Goldberg went through and sort of

677
00:34:21,565 --> 00:34:24,295
his evolution before we talk to him
and you hear it in his own words.

678
00:34:24,452 --> 00:34:28,572
And I think that's… it's gonna be
really interesting to see over this

679
00:34:28,592 --> 00:34:32,502
week where Coral Reef is and how it's
affecting that, you know, just one

680
00:34:32,502 --> 00:34:35,902
person in the US to say, "Hey, I'm
gonna make a difference," and starts an

681
00:34:35,902 --> 00:34:38,052
organization to make that difference.

682
00:34:38,102 --> 00:34:39,872
And then five and a half
years later, they're already

683
00:34:39,872 --> 00:34:41,589
expanding, and it's great to see.

684
00:34:41,905 --> 00:34:43,125
So that's it for today's episode.

685
00:34:43,125 --> 00:34:45,175
I know it's been a long episode.

686
00:34:45,175 --> 00:34:47,735
My gosh, one of my longer
episodes that's solo episodes.

687
00:34:47,849 --> 00:34:50,849
But I think it's an important
aspect to figure out, and it's

688
00:34:50,849 --> 00:34:52,349
something that we need to build on.

689
00:34:52,349 --> 00:34:55,059
We need to look at from
a global perspective.

690
00:34:55,059 --> 00:34:58,749
This is global reefs, and how do we
build resilience in global reefs?

691
00:34:58,759 --> 00:35:01,812
It's local restoration for now,
but it doesn't ignore the fact

692
00:35:01,812 --> 00:35:03,852
that we need climate resiliency.

693
00:35:03,852 --> 00:35:07,842
We need reduction in climate
change right now, yesterday,

694
00:35:07,912 --> 00:35:09,352
the day before, last decade.

695
00:35:09,742 --> 00:35:11,952
It is imperative, and
we can't ignore that.

696
00:35:12,142 --> 00:35:14,432
Global coral reefs are the
canary in the coal mine.

697
00:35:14,642 --> 00:35:17,232
They are the indicator of how
well we're doing, and we're not

698
00:35:17,232 --> 00:35:18,622
doing well, and we need help.

699
00:35:18,869 --> 00:35:21,069
So ways that you can help
are gonna come this week.

700
00:35:21,109 --> 00:35:23,999
Hit that follow button to make sure
that you don't miss any of the other

701
00:35:24,009 --> 00:35:25,279
episodes that are coming out this week.

702
00:35:25,422 --> 00:35:28,222
I wanna thank you so much for
joining me on today's episode of the

703
00:35:28,222 --> 00:35:29,482
How to Protect the Ocean podcast.

704
00:35:29,722 --> 00:35:30,792
I am your host, Andrew Lewin.

705
00:35:30,802 --> 00:35:31,462
Have a great day.

706
00:35:31,472 --> 00:35:33,592
We'll talk to you next time,
and happy conservation.