Why This El Niño Matters More Than You Think

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What if one patch of unusually warm
water in the Pacific Ocean could trigger

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droughts, floods, coral bleaching,
food shortages, and record-breaking

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temperatures around the world?

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This is the How to Protect the Ocean
podcast, your weekday ocean news update.

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the ocean every weekday, Monday to Friday,

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to, and let's get started with the show.

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Today, we're talking about something
that ocean scientists, climate

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researchers, and governments around
the world are watching very closely.

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It's a developing El Niño,
but not just any El Niño, a

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potentially very strong El Niño.

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Some scientists are even using
the phrase super El Niño.

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And if you wanna get, like, a true
breakdown of what El Niño is and

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you follow the Basement Biologist
on TikTok or on Instagram, I

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highly recommend that you go there.

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If I could link to it, I will, because
he did a very good rendition of, like,

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what this is, like, from a scientific
point of view, a biologist point of view.

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I highly recommend that you go do it.

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But we're gonna talk a little bit about
today especially from the conservation,

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like, why people are so worried.

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Like, why are scientists so
concerned about this year's El Niño?

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We've had them before but what
it could mean for the ocean and

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for people around the world.

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So let's get into it.

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If you've listened to the podcast before,
you've probably heard the term El Niño.

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I've talked about it before.

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But let's get a quick breakdown, unless
you wanna go… If you wanna stop

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this or wait till after and go back
to the Basement Biologist to listen

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to his rendition of what an El Niño
is, he did a really great explanation.

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But here is the brief.

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El Niño is a natural climate pattern
that happens when the surface waters

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of the eastern and central Pacific
Ocean become warmer than normal.

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That warming changes the wind patterns.

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Those wind changes affect rainfall.

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Rainfall affects agriculture.

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Agriculture affects food prices.

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And suddenly, a patch of warm
ocean is influencing communities

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thousands of kilometers away.

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And that's why El Niño is often
described as one of the most

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powerful climate patterns on Earth.

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And right now, scientists are seeing
signals that suggest this event

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could become exponentially strong.

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NOAA recently estimated a significant
chance that the upcoming event

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could rank among the strongest
El Niño events observed since

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modern records began in 1950.

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That's pretty scary because
the last few, especially the

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one in 2016 was pretty scary.

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There was also a warm blob
that came down from the Arctic.

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It lasted a number of years and
it definitely changed our

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system, like our entire planet.

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But scientists have been tracking
unusually warm water temperatures,

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large pools of heat below the ocean
surface, and atmospheric changes that

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are all lining up in a way that suggests
a major event might be developing.

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This is why we have baseline data, folks.

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This is why ocean observing systems
are really, really important.

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Now, here's something important.

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A strong El Niño doesn't
automatically guarantee a disaster.

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Scientists repeatedly emphasize
that stronger events increase

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the odds of extreme impacts,
but they don't guarantee them.

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Now, think of it as loading the dice.

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You don't know exactly what number will
come up, but you know the odds have

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changed, and that's why researchers
are paying so much attention.

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So why should ocean conservationists care?

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That's the question.

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Because El Niño can affect
almost every major ocean issue

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we talk about on this show.

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So let's start with coral reefs.

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When ocean temperature stays elevated
for long periods, we know what happens.

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Corals become stressed.

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That stress can lead to coral bleaching,
and we've already seen widespread

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bleaching events in recent years.

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And a strong El Niño can add even more
heat to already stressed ocean ecosystems.

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And you talk about cumulative
effects, like, the fisheries.

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In the Eastern Pacific, warm waters can
disrupt nutrient-rich upwelling systems.

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Normally, cold water rises from the
deep in those upwelling systems and

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bring nutrients to the surface.

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Those nutrients support plankton, plankton
support fish, fish support fisheries.

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When that process is disrupted,
the entire food web changes,

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and it can feel the impact.

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So historically, some major El
Niño events have severely affected

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fisheries, including Peru's anchovy
fishery during the early 1970s.

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But the story doesn't stop in the ocean.

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A strong El Niño can influence droughts
in some regions and flooding in others.

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Parts of Australia, Southeast
Asia, and portions of the Amazon

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often experience hotter and drier
conditions during major events.

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Other regions may see increased
rainfall and flooding.

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That matters because food
systems are connected globally.

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Recent reporting suggests crops like
cocoa, coffee, and sugar may be

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particularly vulnerable if a strong
El Niño develops later this year.

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And here's where the story
becomes even bigger than weather.

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We're not experiencing this
El Niño in the same world that

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existed in 1982 or even in 2015.

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We are experiencing it in a world that is
already warmer because of climate change.

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Scientists have repeatedly pointed
out that the additional heat already

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present in the atmosphere and the
oceans may amplify some of the

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impacts associated with El Niño.

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So it's not just El Niño, it's
El Niño plus warming planet.

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That combination is what many
researchers find concerning.

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Now I'm gonna just interrupt quickly.

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If you are getting value from this quick
ocean news update on El Niño, and you

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So there's lots of things to do.

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I'll be putting up updates of some of
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the future and where I'm gonna go and
my strategy, all that kinda stuff.

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You can support me on Patreon,
speakupforblue.com/patreon So what

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should we watch for over the next few
months during this potential El Niño?

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First, scientists will continue monitoring
the Pacific Ocean temperatures because

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they have the observing system to do
that, which is why we need baseline

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data, and we need to fund baseline data.

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The strength of the El Niño is
measured using several indicators, and

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researchers will be looking closely to
see whether current forecasts continue

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to strengthen or begin to weaken.

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Second, we're gonna watch
for coral bleaching reports.

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If ocean temperatures remain elevated,
reefs in vulnerable regions could

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experience additional stress.

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We've seen the Great Barrier Reef
go ninety-four percent bleaching.

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They recovered in many of those places.

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But as those bleaches continue to
increase, and then we start to get longer

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periods of ocean warming, that bleaching
becomes more and more severe every year.

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Now, the third thing we're
gonna do is we're gonna watch

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for food and fishery stories.

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Many of the earliest impacts of
El Niño show up in agriculture,

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fisheries, and water availability.

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You can almost even see it in the gray
whale populations off the West Coast.

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Something is going on there, and they
think that the food shortages or the food

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displacement because of climate change
and current displacement, everything

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like that, is affecting these gray whales
on the West Coast of North America.

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And finally, we're gonna watch how
governments and organizations prepare.

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The World Meteorological Organization
has already urged countries to prepare

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for potential extreme weather impacts
associated with the developing event.

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If you're on TikTok or Instagram and
you follow any meteorologist, they

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are talking about this super El Niño.

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I guarantee you they're talking
about the super El Niño.

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The encouraging part is that the
forecasting has improved dramatically.

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Scientists can now see many of the
signals months before the strongest

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impacts occur, so we can prepare better.

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That doesn't prevent the event.

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It just gives the communities
time to prepare for the event.

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Farmers can adjust, emergency managers
can plan, conservation organizations

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can monitor vulnerable ecosystems,
and policymakers can make decisions

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before conditions become critical.

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That's a much better position than
humanity was in during some of the most

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historical El Niño events of the past.

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So the most important thing to
remember is this: a strong El Niño

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starts in the ocean, but its impacts
reach far beyond those coastlines.

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It can affect coral reefs, fisheries,
food systems, water supplies,

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and communities around the world.

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That's why ocean monitoring
matters, because what happens in

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the Pacific rarely stays in the
Pacific Now, I wanna thank you

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for joining me on today's episode.

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That's it for today's episode.

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If you wanna get ahold of me, you
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That's speakupforblue.com/patreon.

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Link is in the show notes.

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But thank you for joining me
on today's episode of the How

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to Protect the Ocean podcast.

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Have a great day.

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We'll talk to you next
time, and happy conservation