Who Really Decides Canada’s Climate Future?

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What if Canada's climate targets
are being reshaped, not just in

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Ottawa, but in Washington, D.C.?

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This is the How to Protect the Ocean
podcast, your weekday ocean news update.

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If you care about staying informed
on the ocean every weekday, hit

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And this week, we're gonna be talking
all about ocean news Monday to Friday.

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There's no interview at the end
of the week, but today until

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Friday, we are gonna be talking
about some cool ocean news topics.

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Some good, some bad, and so we're
gonna kinda continue with that.

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Today's question is this: How can the
policies of a foreign government change

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Canada's economic priorities and then
change Canada's environmental policies?

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That's what we're gonna be talking
about today because that is

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the story unfolding right now.

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We just got a recent release.

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On the day that I'm recording
this, it is Canada Day, so happy

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Canada Day for those folks who are
Canadian who are listening to this.

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Prime Minister Mark Carney
just gave an acknowledgement.

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He sent out a video where he acknowledged
that Canada is not on track to meet

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its twenty thirty climate targets.

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He's also said that emissions will
likely be higher than previously

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projected over the next few years.

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Now, that matters because the
bigger story here is not just

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that Canada may miss the target.

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The bigger story is why
Canada's gonna miss the targets.

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And to be honest, when we're looking
at targets, the original target

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was going to be, like, four hundred
and thirty-some-odd megatons.

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It's gonna be up to six hundred
megatons, which is about twenty-eight

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percent below two thousand five.

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So we're still gonna get below the amount
with two thousand five, but just not as

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much as we wanted to in the first place.

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Which, look, it's disappointing as
a Canadian, as a marine biologist.

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It's disappointing to hear that the
country had to change its priorities.

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Because Canada's facing pressure from
outside of its borders, especially

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down south from the United States.

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US tariffs, protectionist policies and
a stronger push to bring manufacturing

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and investment back to the American
economy are forcing Canada to

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rethink its own economic strategy.

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And when the economy shifts,
climate policy often shifts with it.

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So today, we're gonna follow the chain.

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Foreign policy affects
Canadian economic policy.

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Canadian economic policy affects
environmental policy, and

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environmental policy affects the ocean.

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So let's start with what happened.

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Canada had a legal climate target
to cut greenhouse gas emissions by

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forty to forty-five percent below two
thousand five levels by twenty thirty.

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The federal government's own
reporting says that is the goal.

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But recent projections show
Canada is still not there.

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The parliamentary budget officer
estimated Canada could be forty-nine

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to two hundred and two megatons
above its twenty thirty target.

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Environment Canada's projection
also show a significant gap.

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Now, Carney is signaling that
Canada's path is changing.

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And you're probably wondering
like, "Why is it changing so

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much?" Because Canada's economy is
deeply tied to the United States.

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When the United States changes trade
policy, Canada feels it pretty fast.

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If the US puts tariffs on steel, aluminum,
autos, and other key sectors, Canadian

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industries become less competitive.

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If the US rolls back clean energy
incentives or changes industrial rules,

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Canadian companies have to respond.

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If the US prioritizes domestic
manufacturing and energy security,

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Canada has to decide whether
to match that strategy, resist

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it, or find a different path.

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Carney's government appears to be choosing
a more economic security-first approach.

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That means protecting jobs.

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That means supporting
industries under pressure.

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That means accelerating major
energy and infrastructure projects.

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And that can mean softening, delaying,
or reworking Canadian policies

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that industry says are too costly
in the current economic climate.

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That is the pivot.

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It is not simply that Canada
forgot about climate change.

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It's more complicated than that.

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It is Canada is trying to respond
to a changing global economy and

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climate policy is being adjusted
as part of that response.

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Now let's talk about why this matters.

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The ocean does not care
why emissions go up.

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It does not care if emissions rise because
of domestic politics, US tariffs, oil

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and gas development, delayed EV rules,
or weakened industrial carbon pricing.

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The ocean only responds to the physics.

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More greenhouse gases trap more heat.

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More heat means warmer oceans.

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Warmer oceans means stronger
marine heatwaves, coral bleaching,

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shifting fish populations, melting
sea ice, rising seas, and more

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stress on coastal communities.

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That is the ocean connection.

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This is not just a Canada story.

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This is a climate and ocean story.

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When governments delay emissions
reductions, the consequences

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show up in ecosystems.

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They show up in fisheries.

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They show up in coastal flooding.

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They show up in Arctic change.

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They show up in the future of marine life.

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And this is where the
story gets uncomfortable.

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Economic policy and environmental
policy are often treated like separate

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issues, even though they're not.

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If a country is worried about
trade, jobs, inflation, tariffs, and

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competitiveness, those concerns can
change what climate policies survive.

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A carbon price can become
politically vulnerable.

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An electric vehicle
mandate can be delayed.

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An oil and gas emissions
cap can become uncertain.

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Industrial rules can soften, and that's
happened all in this last couple of years.

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And suddenly a country that still says
it supports climate action is moving

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more slowly than the science requires.

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Now, this is the nuance.

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This is not a simple good guys
versus bad guys type of story.

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Governments do have to think about jobs.

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They do have to think about affordability.

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They do have to think about trade.

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They do have to respond when a major
trading partner changes the rules

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without telling anybody at the beginning.

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Canada cannot pretend the
US economy does not matter.

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But here's the problem.

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Climate change does not pause while
countries renegotiate trade relationships.

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The ocean does not wait for
a better political moment.

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And emissions released today will
keep affecting the planet for decades.

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So the real question is not whether
Canada should care about the economy.

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Of course, it should.

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The real question is whether Canada
can protect its economy without

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weakening the policies needed to
protect climate and the ocean.

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That is the tension, and that's
what you should be looking out for.

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First, watch for updated
emissions modeling.

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If the government is changing
climate policy, Canadians need

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to know the emissions impact.

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How many more megatons are expected?

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Which policies are being weakened?

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What replaces them?

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Second, watch the industrial
carbon pricing system.

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This may sound boring, but
it's one of the most important

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climate tools in Canada.

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It affects heavy industry, oil
and gas, and electricity.

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If that system weakens too
much, the twenty-thirty target

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gets even harder to reach.

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Third, watch oil and gas policy.

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If Canada expands energy exports while
also promoting net zero by twenty-fifty,

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the government will need to explain
how those two things fit together.

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That means methane rules, carbon
capture, electrification, emissions

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caps, and actual accountability.

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And fourth, watch how often climate
policy gets framed as an economic threat

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instead of an economic opportunity.

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We see this all the time because clean
energy, clean transportation, building

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retrofits, grid expansion, and industrial
carbonization are also economic policies.

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They create jobs too.

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They attract investment.

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They build resilience.

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So Canada has a choice.

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It can respond to foreign economic
pressure by slowing climate action, or

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it can respond by building the kind
of economy that is less vulnerable

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to fossil fuel volatility, trade
shocks, and climate damage.

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The second path is harder,
but is also the one that gives

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the ocean a fighting chance.

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Climate policy does not exist in a bubble.

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It is shaped by trade,
politics, jobs, and power.

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But no matter where the pressure
comes from, the ocean still pays

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the bill when the emissions go up.

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That's it for today's episode.

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If you have any questions or comments
or you wanna add something to this

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episode, I would love to hear from you.

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Hit me up in my DMs either
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Social links are in the show notes.

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so you can stay updated on the ocean.

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And I wanna thank you so much for
joining me on today's episode of

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the How to Protect the Ocean podcast.

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I'm your host, Andrew Lewin.

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Have a great day.

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We'll talk to you next time,
and happy conservation.